What We've Learned About the Economy
September 3, 2010What We've Learned About the Economy
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hillary clinton george w bush nancy pelosi harry reid john mccain
September 3, 2010What We've Learned About the Economy
| |
hillary clinton george w bush nancy pelosi harry reid john mccain
In recent days, the markets have received signals the forecast is not sunny.
According to a private report this week, private employers slashed 10,000 jobs instead of adding jobs as anticipated. Unemployment benefit claims were down, but not by much. All of that means the unemployment rate could rise from where it stood last month, at 9.5 percent.
Economists anticipate that, once again, August will post a loss in government jobs, including temporary Census jobs. But the biggest cause for concern is that this month could show the weakest business hiring in months. Although the economy is technically a year into a recovery, that is not yet showing up in the jobs numbers.
Tig Gilliam, chief executive of Adecco Group, a staffing agency for both temporary and permanent positions , says businesses began steadily adding temps to their staff a year ago. Usually, that's a precursor to permanent hiring, but companies still want to be able to downsize if they need to.
"When I talk to Adecco Group clients, they continually focus on flexibility in their workforce, and the uncertainty in the recovery has even convinced them even more that that is a better route, at this point," Gilliam said.
Gilliam says many firms haven't met their internal benchmarks that indicate that their business has found firm footing — though that is not universally the case.
"The automotive sector was very hard hit in this recession," he said. "And we had quite a few clients who said. 'Once we see the pace of sales reach this, then we're going to open that extra line, or we're going to work a new shift on the existing line.' And those recoveries are actually playing out.
"The automotive component, the manufacturing sector overall, has beg un its recovery and is well into it. That now needs to move over into the business and professional skills."
With about 17 million people unemployed or underemployed, Gilliam says his company gets far more job seekers than job openings. In some cases, he gets 100 applicants for every available job.
It is something of an enigma that jobs haven't come back yet. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates near zero for more than a year. Congress and the administration have tried one stimulus program after another. Many corporations are making nice profits again and some people wonder: Why aren't they hiring?
"U.S. companies are not really having a problem. It's U.S. workers that are really suffering," said Howard Rosen, an economist at the Peterson Institute think tank.
He says the jobs are slow to come back because companies made themselves more efficient during the reces sion.
A hotel chain improved how it staffs up for peak times. A retailer is using a more efficient inventory system. Rosen says these are systemic changes that mean an increase in business no longer justifies an increase in hiring.
He also says global businesses are investing in other parts of the world, but that does not benefit the American worker.
"The answer to all of our problems is investment," he said. "We need to do more investment in productive plant and equipment here in the United States."
In a down economy, much of the public discussion has focused on stimulating demand for goods and services. That means finding ways to pump money into the hands of consumers who might spend it. But Rosen says that is short sighted.
"Stimulating consumption helped contain the recession, it's not going to help us in the recovery," he said. "In fact, it could make things worse.
"What we need to do is shift from consumption to investment in order to start the process of rebalancing the U.S. economy."
Rosen says investment in new production and technology is the only way to create permanent opportunities for workers. Other economists believe that the economy can, and will, heal itself over time.
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NPR's Steve Inskeep had a conversation with the former prime minister of the United Kingdom, focusing on the war in Iraq, globalization, and Blair's political career.
Inskeep asked Blair for a "word or a sentence or a phrase" that would describe how he feels about the war in Iraq, some seven years after it began.
In the interview, as in his book, Blair chose to say that he has "a deep sense of responsibility," which prompted this exchange:
The lawsuit says the Maricopa County lawman's office acted in an "unprecedented" way by refusing to hand over documents that could show whether Arpaio's tough-on-crime traffic sweeps violated the civil rights of Hispanics who were pulled over and whether he mistreated prisoners in his custody.
Federal authorities say they can't move forward with their investigation until they get arrest records and other information.
Arpaio, who gained national attention for making inmates work on chain gangs, live in tent cities and wear pink clothes, says the Justice Department case is politically motivated. His attorney calls the federal demands wildly overbroad.
The government has been trying since March 2009 to get officials to comply with its probe of alleged discrimination, unconstitutional searches and seizures, and having English-only policies in his jails that discriminate against people with limited English skills. Arpaio had been given until Aug. 17 to hand over documents it first asked for 15 months ago.
The officials stressed to CNN that nothing is firm yet and there is a lot of progress that still needs to be accomplished starting with a dinner President Barack Obama is hosting Wednesday night with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the Old Family Dining Room of the White House.
Mubarak also is attending the dinner along with King Abdullah of Jordan, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Mideast Quartet Representative Tony Blair. On Thursday, Clinton will be hosting Abbas and Netanyahu at the State Department in Washington for the actual start of direct talks between the two parties for the first time in nearly two years.
Ambassador Soliman A waad, a spokesman for Mubarak, told reporters late Wednesday that Egypt is ready to host a second round of discussions between Abbas and Netanyahu at some point between now and September 26, when Israel's 10-month moratorium on Jewish settlement construction in the West Bank will expire.
Abbas has declared that the peace talks will end if Israel does not extend the freeze on settlements, while Netanyahu is under great pressure within his country to end the moratorium altogether, just one of many difficult issues to be worked out.
Awaad warned that if the moratorium is not extended then "all bets are off" in terms of negotiations.
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The Democratic bill, which failed late Tuesday, would have been the first statewide ban, although a few California cities already prohibit their use.
The measure offered California an opportunity to emerge at the forefront of a global trend, said Sen. Gil Cedillo, who carried the measure on the Senate floor.
"If we don't solve this problem today, if we don't create a statewide standard, if we don't provide the leadership that is being called for, others will," the Los Angeles Democrat said during Tuesday evening's debate.
Discouraging plastic bag use through fees or bans first gai ned traction outside of the U.S. in nations such as South Africa, Ireland, China and Bangladesh. In January, Washington, D.C., implemented a 5-cent surcharge on disposable paper and plastic bags.
A handful of California cities already ban single-use plastic bags, after San Francisco became the first to do so in 2007.
Palo Alto, Malibu and Fairfax in Marin County have since followed, while a ban approved in Manhattan Beach is tied up in litigation, said Matthew King, a spokesman for Heal the Bay, the Santa Monica-based nonprofit that sponsored AB1998.
Supporters of the bill said the 19 billion plastic bags state residents use every year harm the environment and cost the state $25 million annually to collect and transport to landfills. It had been the subject of a furious lobbying campaign by the plastic bag manufa cturing industry, which called it a job killer.
The bill's author, Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley of Santa Monica, said lawmakers had failed Californians by defeating the measure. But she said the movement to ban plastic bags would continue despite the setback.
"It's not a matter of if, but a matter of when consumers bring their own bags and become good stewards of the environment," Brownley said in a statement early Wednesday morning.
The bill, AB1998, called for the ban to take effect in supermarkets and large retail stores in 2012. It would have applied to smaller stores in 2013.
Republicans and some Democrats opposed it, saying it would add an extra burden on consumers and businesses at a time when many already are struggling financially.
"If we pass this piece of legislation, we will be sending a message to the people of California that we care more about banning plastic bags than helping them put food on their table," said Sen. Mimi Walters, R-Lake Forest.
The bill's main opponent, the Virginia-based American Chemistry Council, spent millions in lobbying fees, radio ads and even a prime-time television ad attacking the measure. The organization represents plastic bag manufacturers such as Dow Chemical Co. and ExxonMobil Corp.
Last year, it helped defeat an effort by Seattle to impose a 20-cent fee on the use of plastic or paper grocery bags.
The organization issued a statement early Wednesday morning applauding the bill's defeat.
"We congratulate Senate members for discarding a costly bill that provides no real s olutions to California's litter problem and would have further jeopar dized California's already strained economy," said Tim Shestek, the group's senior director of state affairs.
The Senate took final action at the very end of the legislative session, reflecting how difficult it had been to muster support. The bill received just 14 votes in the Senate, seven short of the majority it needed.
Sen. Lois Wolk, D-Davis, was one of half a dozen Democrats to vote against the bill. She said the state instead should offer incentives for reducing the use of plastic bags before imposing a statewide mandate.
Brownley had amended her bill in the days leading up to the Senate vote in an ultimately futile attempt to gain more support.
Most significantly, she removed a provision that would have imposed 5-cent fee for customers who forget to br ing their own bag and need to buy a recycled paper one. The proceeds would have gone entirely to the retailer.
Under the revised bill, retailers would have been allowed to charge only what it costs them to buy paper bags. Stores would have been required to provide free bags to shoppers who rely on government assistance.
A state law that took effect in 2007 already requires supermarkets and other large retailers to provide plastic bag recycling bins.
In recent weeks, some local government officials said they would take matters into their own hands if the bill failed. According to Heal the Bay, officials in Los Angeles County, Redondo Beach and Santa Monica said they would pursue individual city- and countywide bans in the coming months.
The national prosecutor's office said in a statement on its website that because investigations turned up no evidence to link them to a terror plot "there is no reason to hold the men any longer."
Ahmed Mohamed Nasser al-Soofi and Hezam al-Murisi were arrested by airport police Monday in Amsterdam on a United Airlines flight from Chicago following a request from U.S. law enforcement officials.
The whereabouts of the two men following their release was not immediately known. Their lawyers could not immediately be reached for comment.
Prosecutors said an initial test by U.S. authorities on an item of luggage belonging to one of the men "showed the possible prese nce of a trace of explosives."
However "more accurate" later tests did not reveal any signs of explosive material, the prosecutors said.
"Investigations in the U.S. and the Netherlands have shown that there is no longer any indication of any possible involvement of the men in any crime," the prosecution statement said.
Their arrests came just days before the ninth anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks in the United States.
Al-Soofi's Dutch lawyer Wouter Hendrickx told The Associated Press before news of the release broke that al-Soofi insists he is innocent.
"He says 'I have no connections to terrorist activities whatsoever,"' Hendrickx said.
Hendrickx said al-Soofi was on his way to Yemen to visit his family when he was detained.
Al-Soofi and al-Murisi missed flights to Washin gton Dulles International Airport from Chicago, and United Airlines t hen booked them on the same flight to Amsterdam, a U.S. government official said. The men were sitting near each other on the flight, but not together.
Al-Soofi also raised suspicions in the United States on Sunday because he was carrying $7,000 in cash. An inspection of his checked luggage uncovered a cell phone taped to a small bottle, multiple cell phones and watches taped together, and a knife and box cutter, according to a U.S. official who had been briefed on the investigation.
None of the checked items violated U.S. security rules, so authorities allowed al-Soofi to fly. But his bags later were transferred to another flight and were not on the flight to Amsterdam, Dutch prosecutors said.
Al-Soofi and al-Murisi changed their travel plans at the last minute and took a direct flight to Amsterdam, raising suspicion among U.S. officials.
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