Can Obama be beaten in 2012?
Editor's note: Ed Rollins, a senior political contributor for CNN, is senior presidential fellow at the Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency at Hofstra University. He is a principal with the Dilenschneider Group, a global public relations firm. He was White House political director for President Ronald Reagan and chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
New York (CNN) -- With less than a year to go till the Iowa caucus on February 6, 2012, the conventional wisdom is that President Obama is vulnerable, but there is no Republican who can beat him.
In a new CNN poll, 26% of registered voters say they will definitely vote for Obama and 37% say they won't. If you add in those leaning one way or the other, it turns out that 47% will probably or definitely vote for Obama and 51% probably or definitely won't.
What does a poll like this mean with more than 20 months to go to Election Day? Not much! The hardest thing for pundits like myself and other talking heads is to say "I don't know."
The easiest thing is to argue that a poll says something and that only we who have our heads buried in polls can interpret it. Well nobody knows what you, the electorate, are going to think in the months ahead -- or what events are going to dominate the national and international agenda.
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The safest bet is that Obama will be the Democratic nominee. You can go to the bank on that one. And my counsel is to stay away from betting this far in advance on the Republican side. Unless you're privy to divine inspiration, the best thing to do is to watch the process evolve.
One thing that you should know though is there are some extremely competent candidates who I believe will run -- and that whoever wins the GOP nomination will be a formidable opponent for Obama.
Unlike past Republican races, there is no establishment candidate or heir apparent who automatically picks up the mantle. From 1952 until 2008, every Republican presidential ticket -- except 1964, the year of Barry Goldwater -- included a Nixon, a Bush, or a Dole. All were Washington insiders and well-known figures when they ran either for vice president or president.
Nixon and George H.W. Bush had been vice president before they became president. Dole had been the vice presidential candidate before he was the presidential nominee in 1996. George W. Bush was obviously the son.
This time the race is totally open: no front-runners, no sure winners, no sons, daughters or spouses running as of now.
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There are two brackets of potential candidates. The first is mostly made up of the survivors of the 2008 race. Former Govs. Huckabee and Romney were the two runner-ups to John McCain in 2008 and Sarah Palin, who was plucked from the obscurity of the Alaska governorship to be McCain's running mate, became an overnight sensation. Huckabee got the most delegates except for McCain and won the Iowa caucuses and several Southern state primaries.
Romney got the most popular votes except for McCain and won his home state of Massachusetts, Michigan -- the state where his father was governor in the 60's and where he grew up -- and Utah, the home of his Mormon religion.
The Palin story needs no retelling here. Most people think that if she were the GOP nominee, Obama would win.
These three lead all polls, and have the highest name recognition, without any one of them being a clear-cut favorite.
Source: http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/cnn_allpolitics/~3/7OT7SSA8shw/index.html
hillary clinton george w bush nancy pelosi harry reid john mccain